As Samarra: A Haven for Iraqi Insurgents?
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Summary

Islam Online claims nearly 40 percent of the population of the Iraqi city of
As Samarra has evacuated ahead of a possible U.S. offensive. The city has
been relatively calm since the end of fighting during Muqtada al-Sadr's
uprising of March and April. The calm was created by the return of Iraqi
insurgents to power and the lack of U.S. troop presence. Stratfor has reason
to suspect the city could begin exporting violence to the surrounding area --
something that could force pre-emptive U.S. military action.

Analysis

In the time since the March and April uprising by supporters of Muqtada
al-Sadr, the city of As Samarra, a mixed Sunni/Shiite city in the Sunni
Triangle, has been relatively quiet. Stratfor believes this calm is due in no
small part to the return of Iraqi insurgents to power. An attack on U.S.
forces July 7 that killed at least five U.S. soldiers followed the first
deployment by the U.S. Army into the city in more than two weeks; it was met
with stiff resistance by Iraqi guerrillas who had taken over the streets.

Like Al Fallujah, As Samarra became a haven for Iraqi insurgents following
disengagement by U.S. troops. Iraqi police have proven unable and/or
unwilling to interfere with the operations of the guerrillas. This has
created a situation in which Iraqi insurgents can recoup, rearm and plan
operations outside of their As Samarra sanctuary. The United States is forced
to decide whether to allow this to continue.

Sunni tribal sources told Stratfor that the guerrillas -- inspired by the
perceived success of the insurgents in Al Fallujah -- are preparing to defend
As Samarra against a possible U.S. offensive. Iraqi police have been largely
ineffective in stopping the guerrillas because the insurgents in As Samarra
are mostly tribal warriors motivated by nationalism. It appears that the
guerrillas in As Samarra have crossed religious lines and that the Shia and
the Sunnis -- many of them former members of the Iraqi army -- have joined
forces against the U.S. military.

Additionally, Stratfor has been told similar situations are developing in
other Iraqi cities, including Tikrit, Balad, Al Khalis and smaller towns
throughout the Salah al-Din province. Tikrit is reportedly the least
vulnerable to guerrilla control because its leaders have remained largely
neutral. As Samarra is the heart of the resistance in the province, but the
insurgents are actively exporting equipment and fighters throughout the
province in an effort to drive the U.S. military farther and farther away
from Iraqi cities -- and eventually out of Iraq.

The U.S. military command is all too aware of the current situation in As
Samarra. A U.S. Army lieutenant colonel said July 15 that no one is "sure who
controls the city," a sentiment echoed by more than one source within the
U.S. military.

The United States is keen to reduce the number of casualties being taken by
U.S. forces throughout Iraq, but particularly in the Sunni Triangle. It is
the desire to reduce the U.S. military's profile and vulnerability that has
driven the military disengagement from cities like Al Fallujah and As
Samarra. Although the disengagement has left U.S. troops far less exposed to
the kind of fighting that engulfed Iraq in March and April, the United States
is forced to rely on largely untested and often unreliable Iraqi forces to
maintain security in the abandoned areas. The consequent failure by the Iraqi
police and military is forcing the United States to re-evaluate its policy of
disengagement, at least in the short term.

U.S. military commanders are loathe to return to offensive urban operations
-- the kind that resulted in the deaths of more than 70 U.S. Marines in Al
Fallujah in April -- but are also increasingly wary of the possibility of
safe havens within Iraq that are being used by insurgents to launch attacks
throughout the region. The return to a full-scale offensive assault against
insurgents holed up in the city is unlikely, but the possibility of U.S.
checkpoints and a blockade of sorts are possible.

Stratfor sources in Kuwait said the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit -- that
arrived in Kuwait on July 7 -- could be headed north for just such a mission
and have been instructed not to shy away from combat.

It is doubtful that checkpoints and blockades will return Iraqi security
forces to power in As Samarra, and it is doubtful that it will have any
substantive effect on limiting the Iraqi insurgency. The United States is
prepared to try anything to avoid engaging in costly urban conflict again,
including the possibility of importing Russian troops to the Sunni Triangle.

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